By Dr. Derek Ellerman
It might just be the Mother of All Battles That Never Was.
Pundits and conservatives may have been expecting a contentious and close race for the GOP nomination for President in 2024, but the way things are shaping up, that might not end up being the case.
The Politico/Morning Consult poll has shown a definite and concrete trend in polling: Trump is going up and up, and DeSantis is going down and down.
And it’s not just a blip on the radar. Take a look:
2024 Republican primary polling trends by Morning Consult
• Trump — 45% (+11)
• DeSantis — 34%
• Trump — 48% (+18)
• DeSantis — 30%
• Trump — 52% (+24)
• DeSantis — 28%
• Trump — 54% (+28)
• DeSantis — 26% pic.twitter.com/wh35GXRYII
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 21, 2023
RELATED: WATCH: Trump Announces Details for His Plan to ‘Shatter the Deep State’ and Drain the Swamp
Trump Pulling Away
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Setting aside the usual disclaimers – it’s early, anything can happen, Trump could be arrested, etc. – the trend line is strong.
And a 28% margin is an enormous number, given the expectations.
My unscientific explanations for this:
- Trump speaks on national issues. DeSantis, while being (easily) America’s best governor, has yet to really delve into national issues.
- Trump is (correctly) seen as the man the Democrats and media fear the most.
- It is very early!
- Going back to Point 2, Democrats pulled and continue to pull unprecedented shenanigans to stop Trump.
- Republicans are (finally) beginning to realize the true scope of the illegality and depravity of the permanent government, also known as the Deep State. Trump is their Public Enemy Number One.
- DeSantis gets plaudits from establishment figures like Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush. Trump receives only their hate.
- More people are beginning to look at DeSantis’ largely-forgotten record in Congress, which includes conservative no-no’s like supporting the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Obviously there is much and more to the numbers. Another factor is that, put simply, Trump is an expert at neutralizing his competition. When Republicans try to take him on, they inevitably get “schlonged.”
Bannon on DeSantis’s decision to open fire on Trump while the Deep State is trying to throw him in jail:
“DeSantis has no sense of timing, history or importance of this moment… That’s because HE IS NOT MAGA.”
So true, Steve! pic.twitter.com/c0l5uYI1f9
— Alex Bruesewitz 🇺🇸 (@alexbruesewitz) March 22, 2023
RELATED: Republican Leader John Cornyn Attacks DeSantis After Florida Governor Says America More Important Than Ukraine
The Latest in Trump vs. DeSantis
To his credit, DeSantis had long refused to take the bait from Trump. That changed this week, when he attacked Trump during an interview with Piers Morgan.
On the eve of Trump’s possible arrest by a vindictive Democrat crony in New York City.
Not a good look.
As The Political Insider’s Rusty Weiss notes,
And indeed, DeSantis took quite a few shots, beginning with commentary on the chaos Trump allegedly brings to the table and that, in his view, is notably absent in his government.
“In terms of my approach to leadership, I get personnel in the Government who have the agenda of the people and share our agenda. You bring your own agenda in you’re gone. We’re just not gonna have that,” he told Morgan.
“So, the way we run the Government I think is no daily drama, focus on the big picture, and put points on the board and I think that’s something that’s very important.”
Now, this is actually a fair criticism from DeSantis. Trump supporters’ biggest beef has been Trump’s seeming insistence on hiring people who hate his guts and everything he stands for, and work tirelessly to thwart the Trump agenda.
It remains to be seen if the timing of the attack helps or hurts DeSantis – since the content of it shouldn’t.
We will know more when the next Morning Consult poll comes out.
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